Equity Research Technical Analysis Report BY Mansukh February 2011

ALBK's NII for Q3FY11 has grown-up by 55.7%yoy to Rs10.5bn driven by more than 30% yoy (+4% qoq) growth in advances and 14bps expansion in NIMs to 3.4%. The advances expansion was muscular at 32% yoy and 6% qoq principally driven by SME and corporate advances, which grew by sturdy 9%qoq and +7%qoq respectively. However, we consider that the advances growth on yoy basis is likely to cool off by 6-7% for FY11 due to hostile base effect. The CASA mix declined by 144bps to 33.3% in Q3FY11 as the bank raised term deposits aggressively during the quarter, a growth of 8.8%qoq. ALBK's CAR remained comfortable at 12.8% with tier I CAR of 8.1%. We believe that ALBK's current valuations of 1.6x FY11E ABV and 1.2x FY12E ABV are extremely attractive looking at average 22% RoAs for FY11- 12E.

On technical perspective, stock currently shows some correction from the highs of Rs 272 however we believe it's a temporary one. And we may see some counter actions in the near term. Nevertheless its technical indicators i.e. RSI and MACD also revealed some buying opportunities in near term.

Sterlite Industries (Sterlite) reported slightly better Q3FY11 numbers. Disenchantment on copper and power segment's performance got remunerated by above expectation results in Zinc business. On the back of higher than expected mined metal volumes, Zinc business reported an EBITDA of Rs15.0bn above our expectation of Rs14 bn. Contrary to performance in Zinc business, Copper reported an EBITDA of Rs2.3bn due to lower mined metal production at and below expected refined metal production at domestic operations. Power business reported numbers well below our expectation coupled by Commissioning of Sterlite Energy's (SEL) further got delayed by a quarter to revised schedule of Q4FY11 with an overall delay of a year.

On technical viewpoint, stock has shown some consolidation around Rs 160 (200 dma). In close proximity we believe stock is well poised to move in upward direction. Moreover it's RSI and other technical indicators also suggest some buying opportunities due to its over sold territory. Hence investors are advised to BUY this stock for a price target of Rs 175-190 in one month.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BY MANSUKH JANUARY

MANSUKH DESK
Jindal South West Holdings Limited (JSWHL) was incorporated on July 12, 2001. It is a Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) registered with Reserve Bank of India (RBI). JSWHL is an Investment Company of the JSW Promoters Group with investments in the Jindal group of companies, mainly in listed entities like Jindal Vijayanagar Steel, Jindal Steel & Power, Jindal Stainless, Nalwa Sons Investments and other companies. JSW Energy, a group company of Jindal South West Holdings, has announced its plans to invest more than $991 million during the current fiscal year, 2009-10, to commission power projects with a combined generation capacity of 1,200 megawatts (MW). The three projects to be commissioned are a 300-MW unit of the Barmer project in Rajasthan, a 300- MW unit of the Ratnagiri project in Maharashtra, and a 600-MW power project in Karnataka.

On technical perspective, stock currently in its retracement phase from the highs of Rs 2250. Moreover entire correction from the highs of Rs 2250 to the lows of Rs 1250 seems to be completing at current juncture and we expect some counter actions in upcoming sessions. Nevertheless its technical indicators i.e. RSI and MACD also revealed some buying opportunities in near term.

MANSUKH DESK
Lupin reported strong 2QFY2011 results driven by the US generic (Lotrel and increase in market share of existing products) and Japan business. However, the launch of Allernaze quite unlikely in the foreseeable future is marginally disappointing. In the US, while the company's generic business recorded more than 50% growth driven by Lotrel and increase in market share in existing products, the branded generic business grew 23% (after one-time accounting adjustment) as the company is now witnessing up-tick in Antara prescriptions. The company expects to register near about 30% growth in top-line and 75-90bp yoy expansion in EBITDA margin going forward. We expect net sales and earnings to post CAGR of 16.7% and 23.5% to `6,500cr and `24cr respectively, over FY2010-12. The stock is currently trading at 24.0x and 19.3x FY2011E and FY2012E earnings, respectively.

On technical viewpoint, stock currently seems to be forming a shaven bottom pattern from the lows of Rs 434. Moreover stock has already completed its retracement arena and is well poised for a new counter move towards Rs 500 in upcoming sessions. It's RSI and other technical indicators also suggest some buying opportunities in close proximity. Hence investors are advised to BUY this stock for a price target of Rs 500-520 in one month.