Crude oil price still appears to go up but how long this bullishness will sustain is very difficult to predict. So do trade in crude but being very active & cautious.
A MONTH ago Brent crude oil stood at around $96 a barrel and Hosni Mubarak was ensconced as Egypt's ruler. Now he is gone, overthrown by a display of people power that is shaking autocratic leaders across North Africa and the Middle East. And oil has surged above $111. Little wonder. The region provides 35% of the world's oil. Libya, the scene of growing violence this week, produces 1.7m of the world's 88m barrels a day. So far prices have not been pushed up by actual disruptions to supply. Oil hit a peak even before news emerged that some foreign oil companies operating in Libya would stop some production and that the country's ports had temporarily closed. As we think, oil prices are driven both by current conditions and by future expectations.
Oil markets don't like surprises. The sudden ousting of Mr Mubarak and the unrest in Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Iran and Algeria (which between them supply a tenth of the world's oil) have added 16% to oil
prices. But the big worry is that spreading unrest will culminate in another shock akin to the oil embargo of 1973, the Iranian revolution or Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Oil is now more global than it was during those previous crises. In the 1970s production was concentrated around the Persian Gulf. Since then a gusher of non-OPEC oil has hit markets from fields in Latin America, West Africa and beyond. Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest crude supplier in 2009; OPEC's share of production has gone from around 54% in the mid- 1970s to just over 40% now.
If Libya's oil stopped flowing importers would look to Saudi Arabia to make up the shortfall. The oil could probably flow to fill the gap in Europe, Libya's main market, in a matter of weeks. That is ample to plug a Libyan gap but would hasten the day when growing world demand sucks up all spare production capacity and sends oil prices rocketing. Despite rising prices, Saudi Arabia has so far been reluctant to turn its stopcocks. OPEC claims that the world is amply supplied with oil and seems content with a price around $100 a barrel. Traders hope that Saudi Arabia will boost production stealthily or that OPEC will call a special meeting to raise quotas and calm markets.
The worst-case scenario for oil prices would be some kind of disruption to Saudi supply itself. That concern has become livelier given the unrest in neighboring Bahrain. The tiny island kingdom produces little oil but is of vital strategic importance in the Persian Gulf, a seaway that carries 18% of the world's oil. America's 5th Fleet, which polices the Gulf against troublemakers (i.e. Iran), uses the country as a base.
The Saudis may also fear that protests by Bahrain's Shia population could spill over their own borders. Saudi Arabia's eastern provinces are home to both its oil industry and most of its Shias, who may also have cause for grievance with their Sunni rulers. One crumb of comfort is that oil facilities across the region are generally located far from the population centers, where protests tend to be concentrated, and are well defended against anything but a concerted military assault.
The impact of a crisis would therefore depend on how much oil production was lost and for how long. Even seismic shocks in oil- producing countries might not cut off supplies for very long. Yet the example of Iran shows what can go wrong. The world could probably weather a short-lived crisis. But the damage if oil prices spiked and stayed high for a long time could be great for the recovering economies of the rich world. As for the prospects of reducing the importance of the Middle East to global oil supplies, forget it. Strong Asian demand is likely to mean that OPEC's share of oil production rises again as it pumps extra output eastward. A troubled region's capacity to cause trouble will not diminish.
India’s domestic Oil production is insufficient (at 0.8 million barrels per day), to meet with growing demand of oil in the country. India is hugely depends on the OPEC countries for his requirements. Instability in political scenario and some rise in crude oil prices will also affect National Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock Exchange. Equity market and commodity and exchange market, seems to get most affected from this.
A MONTH ago Brent crude oil stood at around $96 a barrel and Hosni Mubarak was ensconced as Egypt's ruler. Now he is gone, overthrown by a display of people power that is shaking autocratic leaders across North Africa and the Middle East. And oil has surged above $111. Little wonder. The region provides 35% of the world's oil. Libya, the scene of growing violence this week, produces 1.7m of the world's 88m barrels a day. So far prices have not been pushed up by actual disruptions to supply. Oil hit a peak even before news emerged that some foreign oil companies operating in Libya would stop some production and that the country's ports had temporarily closed. As we think, oil prices are driven both by current conditions and by future expectations.
Oil markets don't like surprises. The sudden ousting of Mr Mubarak and the unrest in Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Iran and Algeria (which between them supply a tenth of the world's oil) have added 16% to oil
prices. But the big worry is that spreading unrest will culminate in another shock akin to the oil embargo of 1973, the Iranian revolution or Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Oil is now more global than it was during those previous crises. In the 1970s production was concentrated around the Persian Gulf. Since then a gusher of non-OPEC oil has hit markets from fields in Latin America, West Africa and beyond. Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest crude supplier in 2009; OPEC's share of production has gone from around 54% in the mid- 1970s to just over 40% now.
If Libya's oil stopped flowing importers would look to Saudi Arabia to make up the shortfall. The oil could probably flow to fill the gap in Europe, Libya's main market, in a matter of weeks. That is ample to plug a Libyan gap but would hasten the day when growing world demand sucks up all spare production capacity and sends oil prices rocketing. Despite rising prices, Saudi Arabia has so far been reluctant to turn its stopcocks. OPEC claims that the world is amply supplied with oil and seems content with a price around $100 a barrel. Traders hope that Saudi Arabia will boost production stealthily or that OPEC will call a special meeting to raise quotas and calm markets.
The worst-case scenario for oil prices would be some kind of disruption to Saudi supply itself. That concern has become livelier given the unrest in neighboring Bahrain. The tiny island kingdom produces little oil but is of vital strategic importance in the Persian Gulf, a seaway that carries 18% of the world's oil. America's 5th Fleet, which polices the Gulf against troublemakers (i.e. Iran), uses the country as a base.
The Saudis may also fear that protests by Bahrain's Shia population could spill over their own borders. Saudi Arabia's eastern provinces are home to both its oil industry and most of its Shias, who may also have cause for grievance with their Sunni rulers. One crumb of comfort is that oil facilities across the region are generally located far from the population centers, where protests tend to be concentrated, and are well defended against anything but a concerted military assault.
The impact of a crisis would therefore depend on how much oil production was lost and for how long. Even seismic shocks in oil- producing countries might not cut off supplies for very long. Yet the example of Iran shows what can go wrong. The world could probably weather a short-lived crisis. But the damage if oil prices spiked and stayed high for a long time could be great for the recovering economies of the rich world. As for the prospects of reducing the importance of the Middle East to global oil supplies, forget it. Strong Asian demand is likely to mean that OPEC's share of oil production rises again as it pumps extra output eastward. A troubled region's capacity to cause trouble will not diminish.
India’s domestic Oil production is insufficient (at 0.8 million barrels per day), to meet with growing demand of oil in the country. India is hugely depends on the OPEC countries for his requirements. Instability in political scenario and some rise in crude oil prices will also affect National Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock Exchange. Equity market and commodity and exchange market, seems to get most affected from this.
