Thursday, May 12, 2011

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS On UNITED SPIRITS LTD (MCDOWELL & C) And Lupin LTD

United SpiritUnited Spirits (USL) is the largest spirits company in India and a flagship entity of $2 billion UB group. It manufactures wide range of whisky, vodka, rum and other spirits. United Spirits is among the top three spirits companies in the world. It has a presence in over 59 countries. USL's technical centre is located in Bangalore, which develops new products, conducts research and development, flavor testing and quality management. It has 62 manufacturing units. The company has received recognition for its quality products from independent jury such as International Wine & Spirits Competition (UK), International Spirits Challenge (UK), World Beverage Competition (US), Monde Quality Institute (Belgium) and Mundusvini (Germany). India's changing demography presents a significant opportunity for United Spirits to tap especially in the prestige segment. The company currently operates at 53 percent share-points in the segment. McDowell's No. 1 Platinum was launched in March 2010, is available in packs of 750 ml, 375 ml and 180 ml and is a part of Rs 8,300 crore McDowell's franchise.

On technical perspective, stock currently shows significant correction from the highs of Rs 1688 however we believe it's a temporary one and we might see some buying opportunities in the near term. Nevertheless its technical indicators i.e. RSI and MACD also revealed some technical pull back in near term.

Lupin LTDLupin is a transnational company engaged in development of APIs, generic and branded formulations. It is the largest manufacturer of Tuberculosis drugs in the world. It has onshore and offshore presence of its products in 70 countries. Its manufacturing unit is located in Goa, Tarapur, Ankleshwar, Jammu, Mandideep, Indore, Aurangabad and Kyowa in Japan. The manufacturing facilities of the company are approved by various international regulatory agencies like US FDA, UK MHRA, TGA Australia, WHO, and MCC South Africa. We expect Lupin to start API supply to Salix after a couple of years (~ in FY2013). The scale up in the deal clearly outlines the high probability of success for the drug to commercialise. Further, an approval for new indications would lead to higher API supplies and royalties in future. At the current market price of Rs440, the stock trades at 18.3x FY2012E fully diluted earnings and at 15.8x FY2013E fully diluted earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs480.

On technical viewpoint, stock has shown upward bias after having consolidation around Rs 420. In close proximity we believe stock is well poised to move in upward direction. Moreover it's RSI and other technical indicators stands in the positive territory where possibility of turnaround couldn't be rule out. Hence investors are advised to BUY this stock for a price target of Rs 470-480 in near term.

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